经济金融高频数据观察

【经济金融高频数据观察】

1、全球经济及通胀：经济增速放缓，通胀水平震荡。

（1）全球经济增速有所企稳，2023年07月07日波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)当周平均值为1021.6点，较上周变化-129.80点。

（2）通胀水平高位震荡，CRB商品价格指数当周平均值为262.52点，较上周变化1.83点。

2、中国经济及通胀：PMI回升，物价稳定。

（1）中国经济增长动能回落，2023年06月中国PMI为49%，较上月变化0.2个百分点.

（2）通胀趋于平稳，2023年06月28日中国猪肉当周平均价为23.44元/公斤，较上周变化-0.32元/公斤。

3、工业生产：主要开工率保持稳定。

（1）2023年07月07日中国高炉当周开工率(247家)为84.48%，较上周变化0.39个百分点。

（2）螺纹钢主要钢厂开工率为47.87%，较上周变化1.31个百分点。

4、消费：逐步回暖。

（1）必需品消费平稳，2023年07月02日义乌中国小商品总价格指数为100.98点，较上周变化-0.13点。

（2）可选品消费回暖，中国乘用车当周日均销量为16.44万辆，较上周变化8.94万辆。

5、投资：稳中偏弱。

（1）房地产投资企稳，2023年07月02日30大中城市商品房周度日均成交面积为55.83万平方米，较上周变化17.25万平方米。

（2）基建投资偏弱，2023年05月中国挖掘机中国销量为6592台，较去年同期变化-5587台。

（3）制造业投资保持平稳，2023年07月06日中国汽车轮胎半钢胎当周开工率为71.1%，较上周变化1.25个百分点。

6、出口：略有下滑。

（1）2023年07月07日出口集装箱运价指数为880.2点，较上周变化-15.52点。

（2）2023年05月中国主要港口外贸货物吞吐量当月值为43511.08万吨，较去年同期变化3993万吨。

7、新兴行业：半导体景气度上升、光伏景气度下降。

（1）半导体指数走高，2023年07月07日费城半导体指数周度日均值为3620.29点，较上周变化9.31点。

（2）光伏指数走低，2023年07月03日光伏行业综合价格指数(SPI)为28点，较上周变化-0.36点。

（唐加文）

[Observations on economic and financial high-frequency data]

1. Global economy and inflation: economic growth slowed down and inflation level oscillated.

(1) The global economic growth rate has stabilised, with the average value of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) for the week of 07 July 2023 at 1021.6 points, a change of -129.80 points from last week.

(2) Inflation level is high and oscillating, CRB Commodity Price Index average value of the week is 262.52 points, a change of 1.83 points from last week.

2. Chinas economy and inflation: PMI rebounded and prices stabilised.

(1) Chinas economic growth momentum fell back, 2023 06 China PMI was 49%, a change of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month .

(2) Inflation tends to stabilise, the average price of pork in China for the week on 28 June 2023 was RMB 23.44/kg, a change of -0.32 RMB/kg from last week.

3. Industrial production: major starts remained stable.

(1) Chinas blast furnace weekly start rate (247) was 84.48% on 07 July 2023, a change of 0.39 percentage points from last week.

(2) Rebar main steel mill start rate was 47.87%, a change of 1.31 percentage points from last week.

4. Consumption: gradually picking up.

(1) Consumption of essential goods is stable, Yiwu China Commodity Total Price Index on 02 July 2023 was 100.98 points, a change of -0.13 points from last week.

(2) Consumption of optional goods warmed up, Chinas daily average sales of passenger cars on the same week was 164,400 units, a change of 89,400 units from last week.

5. Investment: stable to weak.

(1) Real estate investment stabilised, with the weekly daily average of commercial property sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities at 558,300 square metres on 02 July 2023, a change of 172,500 square metres from last week.

(2) Infrastructure investment is weak, Chinas excavator China sales in May 2023 was 6,592 units, change from the same period last year -5,587 units.

(3) Manufacturing investment stays stable, Chinas auto tyre semi-steel tyre start rate in the week of 06/07/2023 was 71.1%, change of 1.25 percentage points from last week.

6. Exports: a slight decline.

(1) 07/07/2023 Export Container Freight Index was 880.2 points, a change of -15.52 points from last week.

(2) 2023 05 Chinas major ports of foreign trade cargo throughput in the month value of 43,511,800 tonnes, a change of 39.93 million tonnes over the same period last year.

7. Emerging industries: semiconductor boom rose, PV boom declined.

(1) semiconductor index higher, 2023 07 July Philadelphia semiconductor index weekly average daily value of 3620.29 points, a change of 9.31 points from last week.

(2) Photovoltaic Index went lower, the PV Industry Composite Price Index (SPI) was 28 points on 03 July 2023, a change of -0.36 points from last week.

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